Unterschiede

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--- grundlagen:energiewirtschaft_und_oekologie:growth_discussion [2023/12/14 12:48] – [(4) Is it all just theory?] wfeist
+++ grundlagen:energiewirtschaft_und_oekologie:growth_discussion [2024/01/10 13:22] (aktuell) – wfeist
@@ Zeile 37: / Zeile 37: @@
 First the facts: Let $q$ be a factor with an absolute value smaller than 1. Then the 'infinite sum' (called: geometric series) is\\ \\
 $1+q+q^2+q^3+...$ \\ \\
-a **finite value**. \\ \\
+a **finite value**. If you find the following box with the formulas too challenging, you can skip the box for now and find a more elementary illustration in the [[A_Shoko_sharing_game|page linked here]]. \\ \\
 {{ :grundlagen:energiewirtschaft_und_oekologie:geometric_row.png?360|}}
 For this the notation with the sum sign $\sum$ has become common in mathematics:\\ \\
@@ Zeile 63: / Zeile 63: @@
 To offer a little more positive perspective: From around 2050 onwards, 'renewable overproduction' of energy will be possible in this way (beyond the need for services). We could then, for example, put them back into "even faster cars", but I don't think that's the best idea. It is better that we then use this energy surplus to actively remove more CO<sub>2</sub> from the atmosphere; It has long been demonstrated that this is also possible (so-called “direct air capture”, DAC). This will be necessary in order to correct the sins of the past that have already been committed: Today we have already emitted more CO<sub>2</sub> than is good for sustainable development on the planet. If we then make a little more effort, we can still achieve the 1.5°C target by 2100: It would be irresponsible to rely onnly on decisions that won't be made for another 25 years ((Because one thing is also clear: a surplus of renewable energy will only be available from 2050 if the generation is expanded very quickly and if at the same time the efficiency is improved to the extent shown here. DAC will always be a quite small contribution, the main share will have to be increased by efficiency and renewables. This will only work if we **start consistently today** and then stick with it for three decades. Only then, from 2050 onwards, even the small potential of DAC will then offer us the chance to change the situation to further improvement.)). However, this consideration shows one thing: solutions that enable a transition to sustainable development do exist. It's not 'all lost' yet.\\ \\
-<WRAP box lo>To come back to the introductory analysis of the gross domestic product, which in reality only grows linearly (the diagram under (1)): Anyone who has followed and recalculated (2) and (3) will find that both will still hold //without// the assumption that there is no such thing as long-term exponential growth; Even in (2) a constant percentage growth $p$ was still used. For (2) and (3) it only matters that the percentage efficiency gain $\epsilon$ is greater than this percentage growth $p$. However, the empirical finding that real GDP growth is not exponential but //linear// is practically relevant: Since the improvement in efficiency (at least for the next 1000 years or so) can correspond to the descending geometric sequence, it always catches up with any linear increase at some point. Real growth in GDP is currently on average around 1.25% per year. This is already intercepted with an $\epsilon$ of the same height (1.25%/a); We've already done more than that - and we //can/// always do it: It's just a question of will. </WRAP>
+<WRAP box lo>To come back to the introductory analysis of the gross domestic product, which in reality only grows linearly (the diagram under (1)): Anyone who has followed and recalculated (2) and (3) will find that both will still hold //without// the assumption that there is no such thing as long-term exponential growth; Even in (2) a constant percentage growth $p$ was still used. For (2) and (3) it only matters that the percentage efficiency gain $\epsilon$ is greater than this percentage growth $p$. However, the empirical finding that real GDP growth is not exponential but //linear// is practically relevant: Since the improvement in efficiency (at least for the next 1000 years or so) can correspond to the descending geometric sequence, it always catches up with any linear increase at some point. Real growth in GDP in Germany e.g. is currently on average around 1.25% per year. This is already intercepted with an $\epsilon$ of the same height (1.25%/a); We've already done better than that - and we //can/// always do it again: It's just a question of will. </WRAP>
-<WRAP box hi>What is important: **All efforts to improve energy and material efficiency!** This includes, among other things, thermal protection, heat recovery, heat pumps, low-flow shower heads, efficient electronics, electric traction, countercurrent ovens, longer service lives, ability to repair, prevention instead of accepting damage and much more. This means that within just a few decades we will be diving below the limit that must be reached for sustainable economic activity. From then on, further growth in prosperity, if we want it, can follow the increase in renewable generation; Maybe we'll have found so much fun with the efficiency approaches that we'll continue with them and then create even more room for further growth ((Mind: at the moment, increasing efficiency cannot only be channeled into material increases in sales; after all the above, we now have to come down from the excessive exploitation of nature that has occurred. By the way, the danger of a so-called rebound does not exist in reality: We have already had the topic [[https://passipedia.org/efficiency_now/the_big_picture#rebound_effect|Rebound effect]], but I will create a more general version later. )). For the next 30 to 50 years, the time that matters, the efficiency potential for around 3% efficiency gain every year has already been proven and demonstrated in practice: We have already built houses whose heating energy consumption is negligibly low - and vehicles that can reach 100 km/h using muscle power alone. And we can always improve with all of this, there is no fundamental “best value limit”.</WRAP>\\ \\
+<WRAP box hi>What is important: **All efforts to improve energy and material efficiency!** This includes, among other things, thermal protection, heat recovery, heat pumps, low-flow shower heads, efficient electronics, electric traction, countercurrent ovens, longer service lives, ability to repair, prevention instead of accepting damage and much more. This means that within just a few decades we will be diving below the limit that must be reached for sustainable economic activity. From then on, further growth in prosperity, if we want it, can follow the increase in renewable generation; Maybe we'll have found so much fun with the efficiency approaches that we'll continue with them and then create even more room for further growth ((Mind: at the moment, increasing efficiency cannot only be channeled into material increases in sales; after all the above, we now have to come down from the excessive exploitation of nature that has occurred. By the way, the danger of a so-called rebound does not exist in reality: We have already had the topic [[https://passipedia.org/efficiency_now/the_big_picture#rebound_effect|Rebound effect]], but I will create a more general version later. )). For the next 30 to 50 years, the time that matters, the efficiency potential for around 3% efficiency gain every year has already been proven and demonstrated in practice: We have already built houses whose heating energy consumption is negligibly low - and vehicles that can reach 100 km/h using muscle power alone. And we can always improve with all of this, there is no fundamental “best value limit”; or if, that one is extraordinarily small.</WRAP>\\ \\
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+Related: Find an analysis to the so called "Fermi-Paradox": [[A connection to the so called Fermi-Paradox|"Why don't we see highly advanced aliens everywhere around us in the milkyway?"]].
 ====Sources====
-[Statista] Statistisches Bundesamt, dokumentiert in 'statista', Internet-Abruf am 13.12.2023  [[https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1502/umfrage/indexiertes-bruttoinlandsprodukt-der-deutschen-wirtschaft/|Index des Bruttoinlandproduktes bis 2022]]
+[Statista] Statistisches Bundesamt, documented in 'statista', Internet last approached 13.12.2023  [[https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/1502/umfrage/indexiertes-bruttoinlandsprodukt-der-deutschen-wirtschaft/|Index of GDP up to 2022 (German)]]